Iran

[doug]

Iran's old guard pushed aside

New generation replacing clerics who had sought better ties with West

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks in Tehran Monday during a ceremony to mark the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution.
By Thomas Erdbrink
The Washington Post
TEHRAN - After Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's followers toppled a U.S.-backed autocracy in Iran, he brought to power a coterie of politically engaged clerics who sought to create the world's first Islamic republic. Nearly 30 years later, a new generation of politicians is sweeping aside those clerics, many of whom had become proponents of better relations with the West and gradual steps toward greater democracy.

The newcomers are former military commanders, filmmakers and mayors, many younger than 50 and only a few of them clerics. They are vowing to carry out the promises of the revolution and to place Iran among the world's leading nations. This rising generation has the support of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader in Iran's political system, who backs the government's assertive foreign and nuclear policies.

Last month, local election councils disqualified scores of clerics and their allies -- including Khomeini's grandson, Ali Eshragi -- from seeking election to parliament March 14. Such candidates have been disqualified before, but analysts said the absence of members of the clerical old guard from other institutions of power in Iran means they will find it difficult to mount an electoral comeback.

"These newcomers are pushing the followers of the imam out of power," said cleric and political veteran Rasoul Montajabnia, using an honorific to refer to Khomeini. "We are being dealt with disloyally."

Ahmadinejad strengthened
Analysts say the purging of those clerics strengthens President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the most prominent leader of the new generation, and will result in a smaller political class that is more beholden to the supreme leader and less tolerant of even internal dissent.

"The newcomers don't have the same power base as the old guard," said Mehrdad Serjooie, a political analyst and former journalist. "They have no reputation dating from the time of the revolution, no direct access to oil money and no important supporters.

"The old factions often could operate more independently because they were powerful" in their own right, Serjooie added. "The new generation depends more on the leader."

Khamenei two weeks ago publicly vetoed a decision by Ahmadinejad to ignore certain laws passed by parliament. "This was a signal to show who is in charge," Serjooie said.

The newcomers say their emergence is part of a generational change. "For the last 30 years we have seen the same names in Iranian politics. It was natural that clerics took control of the country's affairs after they led the revolution, but as time goes by it's natural that younger non-clerics take over," said Saeed Aboutaleb, 37, a member of parliament since 2004.

He said clerics would remain important. "We need them for guidance, just as the late Imam Khomeini wanted. In the end, this is just a change in clothes," he added, referring to the overcoat and turban worn by clerics and the suits worn by younger politicians. "The newcomers are just as religious."

If the clerics have a chance at regaining the political prominence they enjoyed in the years following the 1979 revolution, analysts say, it will be under the leadership of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an ayatollah and former close aide to Khomeini who lost the presidential election to Ahmadinejad in 2005.

During Rafsanjani's two terms in the 1990s, his faction controlled several important executive and economic institutions in Iran, among them the Oil Ministry. He helped bring cleric Mohammad Khatami to power as his successor in 1997.


Khatami's supporters, known here as reformists, included many onetime revolutionaries, such as former students who came to regret their 1979 takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, which led to the severing of ties between Iran and the United States. Rafsanjani's political allies teamed with the reformists and together they began arguing that Islamic law is dynamic and adaptable. They also favored reestablishing relations with the United States through compromise and proposed minor democratic reforms. Later, political fights broke out between the two groups.

Although they held executive power, Khatami and his supporters were prevented from carrying out most of their plans by the judiciary and the Guardian Council, a 12-member body that answers to the supreme leader. Both were dominated by opponents of relations with the United States and of political or religious change.

Most of the candidates disqualified last month belong to Khatami's broad reformist coalition, which sought to compete with the newcomers in this year's parliamentary elections. The Guardian Council is considering appeals and will announce its decisions March 5.

Rafsanjani's supporters, whom the newcomers have accused of corruption, a lack of revolutionary zeal and even spying, decided not to stand in the upcoming elections, although they have not given an explanation.

"We believe we should open the atmosphere in the country, give more freedom and practice detente in the international arena. The newcomers are dogmatic and don't believe in the wishes of the people," said Montajabnia, the cleric, who is a member of the National Trust Party and part of the reformist coalition. "This is a power struggle for the political direction of this country."

The struggle began almost four years ago with the surprise election to parliament of a majority representing the newcomers, and it continued with Ahmadinejad's presidential victory and the subsequent replacement of tens of thousands of experienced government managers.

Important positions taken over
The newcomers, some of whom had spent years in secondary positions in the Iranian system but had no prominent role in the revolution, have taken over important positions traditionally held by clerics. Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a former student of physics and deputy minister of education, became the first non-cleric to head parliament following the 2004 election.

The top negotiator on nuclear issues, cleric Hassan Rowhani, was replaced by Ali Larijani, a former head of Iranian state television. Larijani was replaced in October by Saeed Jalili, another non-cleric and a close ally of Ahmadinejad.

Among the newcomers are a few clerics, almost all of whom studied at a religious school in the holy city of Qom known for its strict interpretation of Islam.

Ahmadinejad's faction, which calls itself "principalist," consists of newcomers who say they want to act according to the principles of Islam and the revolution. Many members are former commanders in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, a force created after 1979 to protect the revolution. Members of another, more technocratic group have similar ideals and backgrounds but are at odds with the government on how to implement those principles. Larijani, who is seeking election to parliament, is emerging as the head of that faction.

"After a purge, the remaining faction divides. The split in the newcomers group will finally result in two main new groups in Iranian politics," said Iraj Jamshidi, political editor at Etemaad newspaper.

‘A lot of abuse of power’
The newcomers say the politicians who preceded them haven't realized the goals of the revolution. "There has been a lot of abuse of power," said Aboutaleb.

Jamshidi, whose newspaper is considered reformist, said the "clerics who used to hold high positions are being held responsible for the current problems in Iran."

Still, Rafsanjani holds one last trump card. In September he was chosen as chairman of the Assembly of Experts, an elected council of 86 clerics that selects, supervises and can dismiss the supreme leader.

"We don't know what's happening in the assembly," Serjooie said. "But we can be sure the new generation is now trying to get as many other institutions as possible under their influence, to cement their newly attained power."

Jamshidi said there is little likelihood that the cleric-politicians who gained power after the revolution will rebuild their standing. "They are not a part of the decision-making process anymore," he said. "I don't see any chance of a comeback."


© 2008 The Washington Post Company

[doug]

Iran leader: 'Big powers are going down'
At conference, Iran leader says time on developing world's side
The Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's president on Tuesday blamed the United States and other "big powers" for global ills such as nuclear proliferation and AIDS, and accused them of exploiting the United Nations for their own gain and the developing world's loss.

But, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, time was on the poor countries' side.

"The big powers are going down," Ahmadinejad told foreign ministers of the Nonaligned Movement meeting in Tehran. "They have come to the end of their power, and the world is on the verge of entering a new, promising era."

The more than 100-member NAM is made up of such diverse members as communist Cuba, Jamaica and India and depicts itself as bloc-free. But most members share a critical view of the United States and the developed world in general.

And with Iran assuming the chairmanship of the conference Tuesday, Ahmadinejad's keynote speech was tailored to reflect the struggle that some NAM members see themselves in against the world's rich and powerful countries.

'Rich and powerful'
A draft of the final document that ministers will be asked to approve, made available to The Associated Press as the conference opened Tuesday, reflected that struggle.

"The rich and powerful countries continue to exercise an inordinate influence in determining the nature and direction of international relations, including economic and trade relations, as well as rules governing these relations, many of which are at the expense of developing countries," it said.

NAM countries oppose "unilaterally imposed measures by certain states ... the use and threat of use of force, and pressure and coercive measures as a means to achieving their national policy objectives," said the draft.

That appeared to be an indirect slap at the United States, which has refused to rule out force as a possible means of last resort against Iran unless it heeds U.N. Security Council demands to curb its nuclear activities.

The draft also condemns "the categorization of countries as good or evil based on unilateral and unjustified criteria" — oblique criticism of President Bush's labeling of Iran as part of an "axis of evil" along with Saddam Hussein's Iraq and North Korea.


Tehran seeks support
Iran has in the past counted on NAM countries to blunt pressure from the United States and its allies for harsh U.N. sanctions and other penalties because of its refusal to freeze uranium enrichment, which can produce both nuclear fuel or the fissile payload of warheads. Tehran has been slapped with three sets of U.N. sanctions because of its nuclear defiance and new penalties loom unless Tehran shows compromise.

Another draft statement also obtained by the AP before the meeting began seeks continued support. Submitted by Iran on behalf of the NAM, it asks the conference to agree that "sanctions imposed on Iran for its nuclear program are of a political nature and should be promptly removed."

The ministers "further affirm ... that there is no legal basis that (the) U.N. Security Council proceeds" in continuing to deal with the Iran nuclear file, said that draft.

While only infrequently mentioning the United States by name Tuesday, Ahmadinejad made clear that he blamed Washington and its allies for trying to "impose their political will on nations and governments."

He accused the great powers of "fomenting discord .... to intensify the military and arms race" so they can feed their arms industries. AIDS, he said, also was the result of world conditions "imposed by big powers."

Accusing the U.N. Security Council of being a tool of the world's haves — which use them against the have-nots — he said it was useless to expect that body to be the solution to the world's ills.

"If the United Nations and the Security Council ... were supposed to deal with the problems of the world ... we would not have a problem called Palestine," he declared, in indirect criticism of the creation of the Jewish state 60 years ago.


© 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

Iran denies it's slowing nuclear activity
U.S. ‘should face reality and accept living with a nuclear Iran,’ official says

Virtual fuel, which consists of lead and is meant to imitate the enriched uranium needed to run the plant, is loaded into Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant on Wednesday.
The Associated Press
BUSHEHR, Iran - Iran denied it had slowed down its nuclear activities and said it planned to install 50,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium over the next five years, a senior Iranian nuclear official said on Wednesday.

The U.N. nuclear agency watchdog said last week that Iran had slowed the expansion of its uranium enrichment plant at Natanz but had built up a stockpile of nuclear fuel.

The West accuses Iran of covertly seeking to build nuclear weapons, a charge Tehran denies, insisting its activities are aimed at generating electricity to meet soaring demand in the world's fourth largest oil producer.

"Our plan to install and run centrifuges is not based on political conditions. We have a plan and we will go ahead with it," the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, told a news conference.

Obama warning

U.S. President Barack Obama has said the United States is prepared to talk to Tehran, in a break from his predecessor's approach, but his administration has also warned of tougher sanctions if Iran refuses to halt its nuclear work.

"America should face reality and accept living with a nuclear Iran. This acceptance will allow America better access to Iran's (nuclear) market," Aghazadeh said, adding that a fresh nuclear achievement would be announced on April 9.

He did not give details.


Aghazadeh was speaking in Bushehr, in southwest Iran, where Iran is building its first nuclear power plant. Iran said on Wednesday it had carried out successful tests at the Russian-built plant, taking it a step closer to its launch.

"Currently we have 6,000 running centrifuges in Natanz and we will increase our activities to install more by the end of next (Iranian) year (to March 2010)," Aghazadeh said.

He did not say how many centrifuges would be in place by March 2010, but added that Iran planned to install 50,000 centrifuges in the next five years.

"We have not changed our scheduled in Natanz. We have neither slowed down or accelerated our activities there," he said.


Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

U.S. offers deal to Russia tied to Iran, missiles
Obama letter suggests Europe-based defense shield might be unnecessary
The Associated Press
MOSCOW - President Barack Obama has written to his Russian counterpart suggesting U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Eastern Europe might be unnecessary if Moscow helped in blocking Iran's progress toward building long-range missiles, senior administration officials said on Tuesday.

Plans for deploying U.S. missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic, ostensibly to guard against Iranian attacks on U.S. allies in Europe, are among a host of issues that soured U.S.-Russia relations during the former Bush administration. There have been indications Obama, who has vowed to shake up American foreign policy, might be willing to set aside the missile defense system.

"President Obama sent a letter to Medvedev that covered a broad range of issues, including missile defense and how it relates to the Iranian threat," one senior administration official said on condition of anonymity to discuss private communications of the president.

"The suggestion is that need for missile defense deployment could become unnecessary if, working together with Russia, the Iran missile threat is addressed," the official told The Associated Press.

Meeting next month

Obama and Medvedev were expected to meet at the G-20 economic summit of advanced and developing nations in London next month, according to the officials.

They also emphasized that "we will continue to consult with the Czechs and Poles as we move forward with decisions on missile defense." That message was an obvious attempt to ease fears among those two U.S. allies — former Soviet satellite states — who are deeply invested in the missile defense system as an assurance of American backing against a resurgent Russia.

The administration has previously hinted that the policy on the missile defense shield that former President George B. Bush fiercely advocated was open to reassessment.

The Obama letter was first reported in Tuesday's editions of The New York Times.


No quid pro quo

In Moscow, Medvedev spokeswoman Nataliya Timakova said that Obama's letter contained various proposals and assessments, but offered no quid pro quo.

"Obama's letter contained various proposals and assessments of the current situation," she said . "But the message did not contain any specific proposals or mutually binding initiatives."

She further disclosed that Obama's letter was in response to one from Medvedev and that the Kremlin appreciated the "positive" spirit of Obama's message.

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urged the United States to restore diplomatic relations with Iran, Russian news agencies reported. "This would be an important element in stabilizing the situation in the region," he said.

Meeting with Clinton on Friday

Lavrov is scheduled to hold talks with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Geneva on Friday in the highest-level meeting between the two nations since Obama took office.

At a February gathering of NATO defense chiefs in Krakow, Poland, Gates said that Washington would review the missile plan "in the context of our relationship with both Poland and the Czech Republic" as well as with NATO and Russia. The language marked a departure from the tone of the Bush administration, which enthusiastically promoted the plan and signed deals last year with Warsaw and Prague.

Gates said that if Moscow really wants to stop the missile shield, it should help eliminate the threat of a missile attack from Iran.

The Obama administration has been vocal about its desire to repair rifts between the U.S. and Russia. In Munich last month, Vice President Joe Biden told a gathering of world leaders, "It's time to press the reset button and to revisit the many areas where we can and should be working together with Russia."


Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

The White House
Obama reaches out to Iran
President says the U.S. wants to end decades-old strained relationship

A handout taken White House video released on March 20, 2009 shows US President Barack Obama speaking in a video message to Iran considered an historic appeal directly to the Iranian people. Obama sought to slash through decades of distrust and animosity and launched the historic appeal directly to the Iranian people urging a resolution of differences and an "honest" engagement with Tehran. A top advisor to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad welcomed Obama's olive branch to Tehran but urged him to back his words with concrete action to repair past mistakes. RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE GETTY OUT AFP PHOTO / HO / THE WHITE HOUSE (Photo credit should read AFP/AFP/Getty Images)
msnbc.com news services
WASHINGTON - President Barack Obama told Iran's people and leaders that the United States wants to engage with their country and end decades of strained relationship, but not unless their officials stop making threats.

Obama on Friday released a video message with Farsi subtitles that urged the two countries to resolve their long-standing differences. His video was timed to the festival of Nowruz, which means "new day." It marks the arrival of spring and is a major holiday in Iran.

"So in this season of new beginnings I would like to speak clearly to Iran's leaders," Obama said in the video. "We have serious differences that have grown over time. My administration is now committed to diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues before us, and to pursuing constructive ties among the United States, Iran and the international community."

Obama has signaled a willingness to speak directly with Iran about its nuclear program and hostility toward Israel, a key U.S. ally. At his inauguration last month, the president said his administration would reach out to rival states, declaring "we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist."

In an unusually swift reaction to Obama's overture, a senior official said Iran welcomed "the interest of the American government to settle differences".

But Aliakbar Javanfekr, an aide to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said the Obama administration "should realize its previous mistakes and make an effort to amend them."

"By fundamentally changing its behavior America can offer us a friendly hand," he told Reuters. "Unlimited sanctions which still continue and have been renewed by the United States are wrong and need to be reviewed," he said.

Javanfekr singled out U.S. backing for Israel, Iran's main enemy in the region, saying that: "Supporting Israel is not a friendly gesture."

'We seek engagement'

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has criticized Obama as merely a continuation of President George W. Bush's policies toward Israel. Khamenei has called Israel a "cancerous tumor" that is on the verge of collapse and has called for its destruction.

In his message Friday, Obama had a warning for Tehran: "This process will not be advanced by threats. We seek instead engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect."

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Iran would welcome talks with the United States — but only if there was mutual respect. Iranian officials have said that means the United States needs to stop accusing Iran of seeking to build nuclear weapons and supporting terrorism, charges Tehran has denied.

Obama and his foreign policy team are looking for opportunities to engage Iran and help reduce tensions between the two countries, which increased during Bush's time in office.

"You, too, have a choice. The United States wants the Islamic Republic of Iran to take its rightful place in the community of nations," Obama said. "You have that right, but it comes with real responsibilities, and that place cannot be reached through terror or arms, but rather through peaceful actions that demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization."

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana urged Iranian officials to accept the U.S. president's outstretched hand.

"It's a very constructive message," he said Friday at an EU summit in Brussels. "I hope that will open a new chapter in relations with Tehran."

Solana added, "I hope very much that Iran will act intelligently" and accept the U.S. offer.


Serious differences remain

The White House said the United States still has serious differences with Iran, particularly on the threat a nuclear-armed Tehran poses to the region. But aides said the president's message was a way to speak directly to Iranians about the U.S. commitment to work with the country.

The video also was an attempt to bypass government leaders. Obama has said there are unelected leaders in Iran who could change the countries' position of hostility.

The White House said a Farsi subtitled version of the video would be given to select news outlets in the region. At the same time, the video would be available online in English and with Farsi captions.

The holiday Nowruz is not Islamic; Iranians of all religions celebrate the 12-day event. Traditionally, the U.S. president and secretary of state release statements for Nowruz.

"For nearly three decades relations between our nations have been strained," Obama said in his video message. "But at this holiday we are reminded of the common humanity that binds us together."


© 2009 msnbc.com

[doug]

Iran’s Khamenei dismisses Obama overture
Khamenei: ‘We haven't seen any change’ in U.S. policy toward government
The Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed overtures from President Barack Obama on Saturday, saying Tehran does not see any change in U.S. policy under its new administration.

Khamenei was responding to a video message Obama released Friday in which he reached out to Iran on the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian new year, and expressed hopes for an improvement in nearly 30 years of strained relations.

Khamenei holds the last word on major policy decisions, and how Iran ultimately responds to any concrete U.S. effort to engage the country will depend largely on his say.

Khamenei demands changes

In his most direct assessment of Obama and prospects for better ties, Khamenei said there will be no change between the two countries unless the American president puts an end to U.S. hostility toward Iran and brings "real changes" in foreign policy.

"They chant the slogan of change but no change is seen in practice. We haven't seen any change," Khamenei said in a speech before a crowd of tens of thousands in the northeastern holy city of Mashhad.

In his video message, Obama said the United States wants to engage Iran, but he also warned that a right place for Iran in the international community "cannot be reached through terror or arms, but rather through peaceful actions that demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization."

Khamenei asked how Obama could congratulate Iranians on the new year and accuse the country of supporting terrorism and seeking nuclear weapons in the same message.

Khamenei said there has been no change even in Obama's language compared to that of his predecessor.

"He (Obama) insulted the Islamic Republic of Iran from the first day. If you are right that change has come, where is that change? What is the sign of that change? Make it clear for us what has changed."

Still, Khamenei left the door open to better ties with America, saying "should you change, our behavior will change too."

Severed ties

Diplomatic ties between the United States and Iran were cut after the U.S. Embassy hostage-taking after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which toppled the pro-U.S. shah and brought to power a government of Islamic clerics.

The United States cooperated with Iran in late 2001 and 2002 in the Afghanistan conflict, but the promising contacts fizzled — and were extinguished completely when Bush branded Tehran part of the "Axis of Evil."

Khamenei enumerated a long list of Iranian grievances against the United States over the past 30 years and said the United States was still interfering in Iranian affairs.

He mentioned U.S. sanctions against Iran, U.S. support for Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein during his 1980-88 war against Iran and the downing of an Iranian airliner over the Persian Gulf in 1988.

He also accused the United States of provoking ethnic tension in Iran and said Washington's accusations that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons are a sign of U.S. hostility. Iran says its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes, like energy production, not for building weapons.

"Have you released Iranian assets? Have you lifted oppressive sanctions? Have you given up mudslinging and making accusations against the great Iranian nation and its officials? Have you given up your unconditional support for the Zionist regime? Even the language remains unchanged," Khamenei said.


Khamenei, wearing a black turban and dark robes, said America was hated around the world for its arrogance, as the crowd chanted "Death to America."

Toward engagement?

Obama has signaled a willingness to speak directly with Iran about its nuclear program and hostility toward Israel, a key U.S. ally. At his inauguration last month, the president said his administration would reach out to rival states, declaring "we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist."



"They say we have stretched a hand toward Iran. ... If a hand is stretched covered with a velvet glove but it is cast iron inside, that makes no sense," he said.

Khamenei said sanctions only served to make Iran self-reliant. Iran frequently boasts of achievements in various technological fields, including uranium enrichment, space technology, missiles and passenger and fighter plane production, despite sanctions.

"Sanctions benefited us. We have to thank the Americans in this sector. If sanctions had not been imposed, we would have not reached the point of progress and technology we are in now," he said.


© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

'Cordial' meeting for U.S., Iran officials
No 'substantive' talks, but two sides agree to stay in touch, Clinton says

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, center left, greets Iran's deputy foreign minister, Mehdi Akhundzadeh, at the Afghanistan talks at The Hague, Netherlands, Tuesday. Akhundzadeh also met briefly with U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke.
NBC News and news services
THE HAGUE, Netherlands - In a cautious first step toward unlocking 30 years of tense relations, senior U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke had a brief but cordial meeting with Iran's deputy foreign minister Tuesday at an international conference on Afghanistan.

The rare diplomatic approach was the first official face-to-face interplay between the Obama administration and the Iranian regime. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton cautioned that the brief talks between Holbrooke and Iranian diplomat Mehdi Akhundzadeh were cordial but not "substantive."

"They agreed to stay in touch," Clinton said at the close of a one-day conference on Afghan security and development that was designed partly to allow the diplomatic turn with Iran. She told NBC News, "We think there is room for more engagement with Iran going forward."

The meeting between Holbrooke, President Barack Obama's hand-picked Afghanistan envoy, and Akhundzadeh came on the sidelines of a session aimed at improving Afghanistan's future prospects. Akhundzadeh pledged to help the reconstruction of its neighbor, but he criticized U.S. plans to send more troops into Afghanistan.

The gathering was being closely watched for signs that the U.S. and Iran can work together on a common problem after years of hostility. The two countries cooperated at a distance in 2001 and 2002 after U.S.-led forces ousted Afghanistan's Taliban government.

The U.S. and Iran have been estranged for 30 years, since young Iranians stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took more than 50 Americans hostage for 444 days. Representatives of the two nations are rarely even in the same room with one another, but they have had accidental-on-purpose public meetings on the sidelines of other international gatherings.

Letter for Iran

The face-to-face pleasantries, along with a diplomatic letter hand-delivered to the Iranian delegation by a U.S. official, were carefully calibrated overtures from the Obama administration aimed at testing the clerical regime's willingness to take larger steps.


Afghanistan and Iran share nearly 600 miles of border, and Clinton said the United States and Afghanistan share concern over the flow of drugs into Iran.

"We will look for ways to cooperate with them and I think the fact that they came today, that they intervened today, is a promising sign that there will be future cooperations," she said.

The diplomatic letter, which Clinton and aides would not describe in detail, asked for Iran's help in releasing or lifting travel restrictions on two American women in Iran, and information on a man missing for two years since traveling to Iran on business.

The cases and the American position on them were known. What is different was the Obama administration's decision to approach Iran directly, instead of using a go-between.

Information or help from Tehran "would constitute a humanitarian gesture by the Iranians in keeping with the spirit of renewal and generosity that marks the Persian new year," Clinton said.

Obama recently sent an unusual video message to mark the Iranian new year in March.


Week of diplomatic gatherings

The conference opens a week of diplomatic gatherings in Europe where Obama is also expected to try for a fresh start in the bumpy U.S. relationship with Russia. Numerous U.S. allies have encouraged a better relationship with oil-rich and strategic Iran.

As a candidate, Obama said he would reach out to Iran, and even hold direct talks with its leaders, if he decided it would serve U.S. interests. That was a marked change from the early days of George W. Bush's administration, when Iran recoiled angrily at being labeled part of an "axis of evil."

Clinton also had a lengthy meeting Tuesday with her Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov — her second since the March 6 meeting in Geneva to discuss a range of issues. Afterward, in an interview with NBC News, Clinton indicated that there would be a positive response to the meeting Wednesday between President Obama and Russia's President Medvedvev in London.

"We are looking to put out some statements that are quite substantive about the areas that we have discussed — we have been working with the Russians on an action plan to do followup to the meeting between our presidents. There is an enormous amt of work that has been undertaken by the state dept and the white house -

Asked if there is flexibility on missile defense, Clinton said they have made it clear from the beginning that if there is less of a threat from Iran, there would be less of a need for missile defense.

"We believe that this is an opportunity for the Russians and the Americans to work together — and the presidents will have a lot more to say about this tomorrow," she said.


Talking with the Taliban

Organizers of Tuesday's conference called it a success merely for the range of nations and organizations attending. Clinton and other diplomats pledged support for the fragile government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, but avoided the argument over fighting troops that had put the United States at odds with some NATO allies.

This week's NATO summit meeting is not expected to raise significant numbers of fighting forces, despite Obama's decision to add some 21,000 U.S. troops before the end of summer.

Karzai and Clinton said Afghanistan would welcome Taliban fighters who embrace peace, reject al-Qaida and pledge to abide by the Afghan constitution.


Clinton said most Taliban fighters have allied with anti-government forces "out of desperation" rather than commitment, in a country that has barely made inroads against poverty and lack of development.

"They should be offered an honorable form of reconciliation and reintegration into a peaceful society" if they abandon violence and break with al-Qaida, she said.

Akhundzadeh was critical of Obama's plan to add U.S. troops, saying the money they cost would be better spent on building Afghanistan's own forces. But he added that "Iran is fully prepared to participate in the projects aimed at combating drug trafficking and the plans in line with developing and reconstructing Afghanistan."

In a closing statement, the conference agreed to promote good governance and stronger institutions in Afghanistan while generating economic growth and strengthening security.


The Associated Press contributed to this report.

© 2009 MSNBC.com

[doug]

Iran leader opens nuke plant, welcomes talks
Complex produces fuel for reactor that U.S. fears could create weapons

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gestures during a visit to a new facility that produces uranium fuel for the country's planned heavy-water nuclear reactor.
msnbc.com news services
ISFAHAN, Iran - Iran declared fresh progress in its nuclear program Thursday, inaugurating its first nuclear fuel production plant and announcing it had tested more advanced equipment for enriching uranium.

The moves, announced a day after the United States and five other powers said they would invite Tehran for talks on in its nuclear program, are likely to revive Western concerns that the Islamic Republic aims to develop nuclear bombs under the cover of a civilian program.

Tehran says it only aims to generate electricity so that it can export more of its oil.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited a plant for developing uranium fuel for a planned hard-water reactor, a development which one leading politician said meant the Islamic Republic had mastered all stages of nuclear fuel production.

Ahmadinejad said his country is open to talks offered by the U.S. and other countries over its nuclear program. But he insisted the talks must be based on respect for Iran's rights, suggesting the West should not try to force Tehran to stop uranium enrichment.

'Peaceful activities'

Ahmadinejad said past talks with European nations failed because "they were insisting on stopping our peaceful activities, they were trying to impose that. It was clear the Iranian people would not accept that.

"The Iranian nation has always been for talks," Ahmadinejad added. But, he said, "dialogue has to be based on justice and respecting rights ... Justice means both sides are treated equally and bilateral rights are respected."

The United Nations has demanded Iran halt uranium enrichment, a process that can produce nuclear fuel but also the material for a warhead. Iran denies any intention to build a bomb and has refused to halt enrichment, saying it has a right to develop peaceful nuclear technology.

In past talks, European nations offered a package of economic incentives for Tehran to suspend enrichment, but Iran refused.

More capacity

Iranian officials also said Thursday the number of centrifuges at Iran's uranium enrichment facility had increased to 7,000 — up from 6,000 announced in February — and that a new, more advanced type of centrifuge had been tested.

In the enrichment process, uranium gas is pumped into a series of thousands of centrifuges, which spin it at super-sonic speeds to remove impurities. Uranium enriched to a low degree is used to fuel a light-water nuclear reactor, but when enriched to a high degree it produces the basis of a warhead.


Thursday's ceremony celebrated the National Day of Nuclear Technology, the day in 2006 when Iran first enriched uranium at its facility in the town of Natanz. Since then, it is believed to have enriched enough uranium to build a bomb — though first the uranium would have to be more highly enriched, and it is not known if Iran has perfected such techniques.

'Diplomatic solution'

The United States, Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain said Wednesday they would ask European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana to invite Tehran to a meeting to find "a diplomatic solution to this critical issue."

This marked a policy reversal in Washington under new President Barack Obama, after his predecessor George W. Bush spearheaded a drive to isolate Iran over work the West suspects is aimed at making bombs. Tehran denies the charge.

China, a veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council and a close energy and trade partner with Iran, said it welcomed signs of renewed engagement and urged Tehran and other powers to pursue contacts aimed at defusing the long-running row.

Foreign nuclear analysts believe Tehran has yet to prove it has mastered industrial-scale enrichment of uranium, the key to making fuel in large, usable quantities and the most technically difficult aspect of producing nuclear power.

Iran has been building the 40-megawatt hard-water reactor in the central town of Arak for the past four years.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

© 2009 MSNBC.com

[doug]

NYT: U.S. may drop condition for Iran talks
Official: Obama aims to 'build a little trust' in break from Bush approach
By David E. Sanger
The New York Times
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration and its European allies are preparing proposals that would shift strategy toward Iran by dropping a longstanding American insistence that Tehran rapidly shut down nuclear facilities during the early phases of negotiations over its atomic program, according to officials involved in the discussions.

The proposals, exchanged in confidential strategy sessions with European allies, would press Tehran to open up its nuclear program gradually to wide-ranging inspection. But the proposals would also allow Iran to continue enriching uranium for some period during the talks. That would be a sharp break from the approach taken by the Bush administration, which had demanded that Iran halt its enrichment activities, at least briefly to initiate negotiations.

The proposals under consideration would go somewhat beyond President Obama’s promise, during the presidential campaign, to open negotiations with Iran “without preconditions.” Officials involved in the discussion said they were being fashioned to draw Iran into nuclear talks that it had so far shunned.

A review of Iran policy that Mr. Obama ordered after taking office is still under way, and aides say it is not clear how long he would be willing to allow Iran to continue its fuel production, and at what pace. But European officials said there was general agreement that Iran would not accept the kind of immediate shutdown of its facilities that the Bush administration had demanded.

“We have all agreed that is simply not going to work — experience tells us the Iranians are not going to buy it,” said a senior European official involved in the strategy sessions with the Obama administration. “So we are going to start with some interim steps, to build a little trust.”

'Brainstorming level'

Administration officials declined to discuss details of their confidential deliberations, but said that any new American policy would ultimately require Iran to cease enrichment, as demanded by several United Nations Security Council resolutions.

“Our goal remains exactly what it has been in the U.N. resolutions: suspension,” one senior administration official said. Another official cautioned that “we are still at the brainstorming level” and said the terms of an opening proposal to Iran were still being debated.

If the United States and its allies allow Iran to continue enriching uranium for a number of months, or longer, the approach is bound to meet objections, from both conservatives in the United States and from the new Israeli government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If Mr. Obama signed off on the new negotiating approach, the United States and its European allies would use new negotiating sessions with Iran to press for interim steps toward suspension of its nuclear activities, starting with allowing international inspectors into sites from which they have been barred for several years.


First among them is a large manufacturing site in downtown Tehran, a former clock factory, where Iran is producing many of the next-generation centrifuges that it is installing in the underground plant at Natanz. “The facility is very large,” one United Nations inspector said last week, “and we have not been inside since last summer.”

Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors would be a critical part of the strategy, said in an interview in his office in Vienna last week that the Obama administration had not consulted him on the details of a new strategy. But he was blistering about the approach that the Bush administration had taken.

“It was a ridiculous approach,” he insisted. “They thought that if you threatened enough and pounded the table and sent Cheney off to act like Darth Vader the Iranians would just stop,” Dr. ElBaradei said, shaking his head. “If the goal was to make sure that Iran would not have the knowledge and the capability to manufacture nuclear fuel, we had a policy that was a total failure.”

Now, he contended, Mr. Obama has little choice but to accept the reality that Iran has “built 5,500 centrifuges,” nearly enough to make two weapons’ worth of uranium each year. “You have to design an approach that is sensitive to Iran’s pride,” said Dr. ElBaradei, who has long argued in favor of allowing Iran to continue with a small, face-saving capacity to enrich nuclear fuel, under strict inspection.

By contrast, in warning against a more flexible American approach, a senior Israeli with access to the intelligence on Iran said during a recent visit to Washington that Mr. Obama had only until the fall or the end of the year to “completely end” the production of uranium in Iran. The official made it clear that after that point, Israel might revive its efforts to take out the Natanz plant by force.

A year ago, Israeli officials secretly came to the Bush administration seeking the bunker-destroying bombs, refueling capability and overflight rights over Iraq that it would need to execute such an attack. President George W. Bush deflected the proposal. An Obama administration official said “they have not been back with that request,” but added that “we don’t think their threats are just huffing and puffing.”


Israeli officials and some American intelligence officials say they suspect that Iran has other hidden facilities that could be used to enrich uranium, a suspicion explored in a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. But while that classified estimate referred to 10 or 15 suspect sites, officials say no solid evidence has emerged of hidden activity.

“Frankly,” said one administration official, “what’s most valuable to us now is having real freedom for the inspectors to pursue their suspicions around the country.

“We know what’s happening at Natanz,” said the official, noting that every few weeks inspectors are in and out of the plant. “It’s the rest of the country we’re most worried about.”

Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, said in a interview on Monday that the Obama administration had some latitude in defining what constitutes “suspension” of nuclear work.

One possibility, he said, was “what you call warm shutdown,” in which the centrifuges keep spinning, but not producing new enriched uranium, akin to leaving a car running, but in park.

That would allow both sides to claim victory: the Iranians could claim they had resisted American efforts to shut down the program, while the Americans and Europeans could declare that they had halted the stockpiling of material that could be used to produce weapons.

“The hard part of these negotiations is how to convince everyone that there are no covert sites,” Mr. Bunn said.

This article, "U.S. May Drop Key Condition for Talks With Iran," first appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright © 2009 The New York Times

[doug]

Iran's leader sparks walkout, shouts of 'shame'
Western diplomats leave U.N. race meeting, protesters throw objects

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivers his speech on Monday in Geneva.
The Associated Press
GENEVA - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Israel of being the "most cruel and racist regime," sparking a walkout Monday by angry Western diplomats at a U.N. racism conference.

The hard-line leader's appearance overshadowed the substance of the weeklong United Nations attempt to stamp out intolerance worldwide. The United States and eight other Western countries, expressing concerns about its fairness, were already boycotting the event.

Protesters dressed with clown wigs and holding placards repeatedly interrupted Ahmadinejad's speech with shouts of "Shame! shame!" and "Racist! racist!" throwing soft red objects on the podium. Later, about 100 members of mainly pro-Israel and Jewish groups blocked Ahmadinejad's entrance to a scheduled news conference.

Ahmadinejad, in a rambling speech, accused Israel of being the "most cruel and racist regime" and pointed the finger at the United States and Europe for helping to establish the country after World War II "under the pretext of Jewish suffering."

That prompted a walkout by some 40 diplomats from European countries such as Britain and France, which had threatened to leave the conference if it descended into anti-Semitic or other rhetoric harshly critical of Israel, which marred the U.N.'s last racism gathering.

The boycotting countries expressed concern that Muslim countries would drown out many issues with calls for a denunciation of Israel and a global ban on criticizing aspects of the Islamic faith.

"As soon as he started to address the question of the Jewish people and Israel, we had no reason to stay in the room," said French Ambassador Jean-Baptiste Mattei.

Speaking directly after Ahmadinejad, Norway's foreign minister said the Iranian leader's comments "run counter to the very spirit of dignity of the conference."

Ahmadinejad "has made Iran the odd man out," Jonas Gahr Store said.

Even before his speech, Ahmadinejad polarized the meeting, which is intended to examine all forms of intolerance around the world.

Israel recalls ambassador

Israel recalled its ambassador to Switzerland earlier Monday to protest Swiss President Hans-Rudolf Merz's meeting with Ahmadinejad late Sunday during which Merz pressed the case of a jailed American journalist in Tehran.

"The meeting between the president of a democratic country with an infamous Holocaust-denier such as the president of Iran, who calls for Israel's destruction, does not mesh with the values that Switzerland represents and that are supposed to be represented at the U.N. conference on racism," the Israeli Foreign Ministry said in a statement.


President Barack Obama said Sunday that the United States would communicate with Iran about journalist Roxana Saberi through its Swiss intermediaries, which have officially represented U.S. interests in Iran since the American hostage crisis that began in 1979. The Swiss government said it also took up other "unresolved cases" of U.S.-Iranian relations.

Ahmadinejad's attendance has provoked outrage from Jewish groups and Israel, as he has in the past questioned the Holocaust and called for Israel's destruction.

© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

Dad: Jailed U.S. reporter goes on hunger strike
Journalist convicted of spying by Iran hasn't eaten for five days
The Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran - An American journalist who has been convicted of spying in Iran has gone on a hunger strike to protest her imprisonment, her father said Saturday.

Reza Saberi told the Associated Press that "she went on a hunger strike Tuesday. Today is the fifth day."

He added that his daughter Roxana Saberi will remain on a hunger strike "until she is freed."

The 31-year-old dual American-Iranian citizen was sentenced to eight years in prison just days after she was tried behind closed doors earlier this month.

Saberi was arrested in late January and initially accused of working without press credentials. But earlier this month, an Iranian judge charged her with spying for the United States.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

Smiling Saberi happy to be out of Iranian jail
New details emerge about evidence presented at her spying trial

Roxana Saberi was freed from prison Monday after an appeals court suspended her eight-year jail sentence.
The Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran - American journalist Roxana Saberi said Tuesday she was very happy to be free and thanked those who helped win her release after four months in an Iranian prison, as new details emerged about the evidence presented against her at her spying trial.

One of Saberi's lawyers said she was originally convicted in part because she had visited Israel and because she kept a confidential Iranian government document about the U.S. war in Iraq, which she obtained while working as a freelance Web translator for a powerful body connected to Iran's ruling clerics.

Speaking to reporters in Tehran for the first time since her release Monday, a smiling Saberi said she did not have any specific plans but wanted to spend time with her family. She looked thin but energetic, dressed in a bright blue headscarf, black pants and a black dress.

"I am very happy that I have been released and reunited with my father and mother. I am very grateful to all the people who knew me or didn't know me and helped for my release," she said in brief remarks outside her home in north Tehran. "I don't have any specific plans for the time being. I want to stay with my parents."

Her Iranian-born father Reza Saberi said his daughter "was not tortured at all" while in custody but that she made incriminating statements about herself under pressure. He said his daughter initially pleaded guilty to the charges under pressure but retracted her statements later and the appeals court accepted that. He did not elaborate on the sort of pressure.

He told reporters the family was making plans to return home to the United States but probably would not be ready to leave on Tuesday or Wednesday.

"She has lost a lot of weight," he said, adding that now "she is eating well. She is recovering."

The younger Saberi was freed after an appeals court reduced her original eight-year prison sentence to a two-year suspended sentence.

The 32-year-old journalist, who has dual Iranian and American citizenship, was convicted of spying for the United States in mid-April in a swift, secret trial before a security court that her father said lasted only 15 minutes.

'Confidential document'

One of Saberi's lawyers, Saleh Nikbakht, revealed new details of the case on Tuesday. He said Saberi had copied and kept a "confidential document" about the U.S. war in Iraq that was issued by a research center connected to the Iranian president's office, and that this was used against her in her original conviction.

Saberi obtained the document while she was working as a freelance translator for the Expediency Council, a powerful body in Iran's ruling clerical hierarchy, Nikbakht said. The council's role is to mediate between the legislature, presidency and ruling clerics over constitutional disputes. The lawyer said Saberi was occasionally working as translator for council's Web site two years ago.

During her trial, prosecutors also cited a trip to Israel that Saberi made in 2006 as evidence against her, the lawyer said. The Iranian government bars its citizens from visiting Israel.

In her appeal court session on Sunday, Saberi admitted to the court that she possessed the document. She said she copied it out of "curiosity," but she said she didn't share it with American officials, Nikbakht said. She apologized for doing so, and the court reduced the charge against her from espionage to possessing confidential documents.


She also acknowledged visiting Israel but said her activities there were not directed against Iran, he said.

Her original conviction was also on charges of working with a "hostile country" referring to the United States. But Nikbakht said the appeals court dropped that charge, ruling that the U.S. is not a hostile country because it and Iran are not at war.

Washington had called the espionage charges against Saberi "baseless" and repeatedly demanded her release. The case was an irritant in U.S.-Iran relations at a time when President Barack Obama was offering to restart a dialogue with Tehran after decades of shunning the country.

But Saberi's release cleared one obstacle to closer contacts. It could also help hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad win some domestic political points a month before he faces a re-election challenge from reformers who seek to ease Iran's bitter rivalry with the United States.

Saberi, who was crowned the 1997 Miss North Dakota, moved to Iran six years ago and had worked as a freelance journalist for several organizations, including NPR and the British Broadcasting Corp. She was arrested in late January.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

Freed U.S. reporter arrives in Austria
Saberi to spend a few days in Austria, vows to discuss experience in ‘future’

Journalist Roxana Saberi told reporters upon arrival at the airport in Schwechat, Austria, on Friday that she hoped to speak out about her time in an Iranian prison "in the future."
The Associated Press
VIENNA - Roxana Saberi, the American journalist freed after some four months in an Iranian prison on spying charges, left the country and flew to the Austrian capital with her parents early Friday.

After landing at Vienna's airport, Saberi said she planned to spend a few days in the city to recover from her ordeal.

"I came to Vienna because I heard it was a calm and relaxing place," Saberi said. "I know you have many questions but I need some more time to think about what happened to me over the past couple of days."

Her father, Reza Saberi, said they were staying with a friend in Austria. The family was accompanied by an unidentified man.

Expresses gratitude

Saberi, poised and smiling, thanked all those who supported her during her ordeal — including Austria's ambassador to Iran and his family, whom she described as "very helpful."

"Both journalists and non-journalists around the world, I've been hearing, supported me very much and it was very moving for me to hear this," Saberi said.

Saberi, referring to several statements made about her case over the past few days, stressed she was the only one who knew what really happened.

"Nobody knows about it as well as I do and I will talk about it more in the future, I hope, but I am not prepared at this time," she said.

Saberi did not specify how long she planned to stay in Austria, saying only: "We're going to stay here for at least a few days and then go on to the United States."

She said it was still unclear if she would also travel to France, where a film she co-scripted premiered at the Cannes Film festival on Thursday. The film's director is Saberi's partner.

The 32-year-old journalist, who grew up in Fargo, North Dakota, and moved to Iran six years ago, was arrested in late January and was convicted of spying for the United States in a closed-door trial that her Iranian-born father said lasted only 15 minutes.

‘So happy to be here’

Saberi's mother, Akiko, also thanked all those who supported her daughter over the past few months.

"We're just so happy to be here," she said.

She was freed on Monday and reunited with her parents, who had come to Iran to seek her release, after an appeals court reduced her sentence to a two-year suspended sentence.


The United States had said the charges against Saberi were baseless and repeatedly demanded her release. The case against her had become an obstacle to President Barack Obama's attempts at dialogue with the top U.S. adversary in the Middle East.

At one point, Saberi held a hunger strike to protest her imprisonment, but she ended it after two weeks when her parents, visiting her in prison, asked her to stop because her health was weakening.

Saberi had worked as a freelance journalist for several organizations, including National Public Radio and the British Broadcasting Corp.

After her arrest, Iranian authorities initially accused her of working without press credentials, but later leveled the far more serious charge of spying. Iran released few details about the allegations that she passed intelligence to the United States.


© 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

[doug]

NYT: In Lebanese vote, hopeful signs for U.S.
American-backed victory could mark regional shift ahead of key Iran vote

Supporters of the anti-Hezbollah Christian Lebanese Forces party celebrate on June 08, 2009 in Beirut's Ashrafieh Christian stronghold their victory in Lebanon's parliamentary elections. Western-backed movements inflicted a surprise defeat on Hezbollah and its allies at the ballot box in Lebanon, according to final results, but the winner faces a battle to keep the nation together.
By Michael Slackman
The New York Times
BEIRUT, Lebanon - There were many domestic reasons voters handed an American-backed coalition a victory in Lebanese parliamentary elections on Sunday — but political analysts also attribute it in part to President Obama’s campaign of outreach to the Arab and Muslim world.

Most analysts had predicted that the Hezbollah-led coalition, already a crucial power broker in the Lebanese government because of its support from Shiites who make up a large part of Lebanon’s population, would win handily. In the end, though, the American-aligned coalition won 71 seats, while the Syria-Iranian aligned opposition, which includes Hezbollah, took only 57.

It is hard to draw firm conclusions from one election. But for the first time in a long time, being aligned with the United States did not lead to defeat in the Middle East. And since Lebanon has always been a critical testing ground, that could mark a possibly significant shift in regional dynamics with another major election, in Iran, on Friday.

With Mr. Obama’s speech on relations with Muslims still fresh in Lebanese minds, analysts point to steps the administration has taken since assuming office.

Washington is now proposing talking to Hezbollah’s patrons, Iran and Syria, rather than confronting them — a move that undermines the group’s attempt to demonize the United States. The United States is also no longer pressing its allies in the Lebanese government to unilaterally disarm Hezbollah, which, given the party’s considerable remaining clout, could have provoked a crisis.

“Lebanon is a telling case,” said Osama Safa, director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies here. “It is no longer relevant for the extremists to use the anti-American card. It does look like the U.S. is moving on to something new.”

Eye on Iran's election

In fact, some analysts said that it was possible that Lebanon’s election could be a harbinger of Friday’s presidential race in Iran, where a hard-line anti-American president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may be losing ground to his main moderate challenger, Mir Hussein Moussavi.

While President Ahmadinejad has grown unpopular for many reasons, including his troubled stewardship of the economy, political analysts said that President Obama had blunted the appeal of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s confrontation with the West.

The results in Lebanon may also make it more difficult for Israel to capitalize on fears of Hezbollah dominance and shift the conversation away from the peace process with the Palestinians — a tactic that many analysts here attributed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“I think the speech of Obama in Cairo more likely played a role in neutralizing anti-Americanism,” said Khalil al-Dakhil, a sociologist from Saudi Arabia. “It was a positive message. It was a conciliatory message.”

Hezbollah still the strongest player

Nonetheless, there are many other factors at play that do not depend on the United States. The Lebanese election did little to change the balance of power in a country where Hezbollah is by far the strongest player. Christians, who played a moderating role and have traditionally tilted toward the United States, are not a political force elsewhere in the region. And it will probably be weeks, even months, before all sides can agree on the makeup of a new government, suggesting the paralysis that has often enveloped Lebanon’s government may continue.

Power in Lebanon is divided along sectarian lines. Christians control half of the 128-seat Parliament. The other half is divided among Sunnis, Shiites, Druse and a few other sects. In this election, Shiites voted largely with Hezbollah and the opposition, and Sunnis and Druse mostly voted with the majority. The real contest was among Christians, who were divided between the camps this time around. And here the American-backed, Sunni-led coalition appears to have conducted a well-calculated negative campaign, stoking sectarian tensions and fears of Iranian and Syrian dominance.


The opposition fought back, with Hezbollah and its allies charging that the March 14 coalition, as the Western-backed parties are known, has allowed the United States to control Lebanon and serves as an agent of Israel.

But among important Christian swing voters, fears of Iran and Syria appeared to trump concerns about interference from Washington.


Fear of isolation

When Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. visited Lebanon in late May, and appeared to threaten withdrawal of financial aid if the opposition won, that was widely derided as a kiss of death. But now, some political analysts believe the vice president may have helped by crystallizing for voters their choice: alliance with the United States, France and the regional allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia; or with Iran and Syria and their allies, Hezbollah and Hamas.

The fear was that Lebanon might have become isolated like the Gaza Strip.

“Evidently the majority of the Lebanese have resolved their minds; they don’t want confrontation, they want peace,” said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at American University of Beirut.

Final results showed that 54.8 percent of eligible voters turned out, far higher than the 28 percent who voted in 2005.

The Lebanese Parliament will be divided almost exactly as it was, denying the new majority a mandate to govern alone. It has an increased legitimacy to form a government, but that legitimacy is largely symbolic. As a result, to preserve stability, the majority is likely to agree to a unity government that incorporates members of the opposition.

The biggest loser was a retired Christian general, Michel Aoun, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement. He entered into an alliance with Hezbollah and, had that alliance won, would have emerged as the most powerful Christian leader in the country. Instead, political analysts said that has emerged diminished.

While those internal details were being worked out, all eyes are expected to shift to Iran for Friday’s presidential election. An upset victory there for the challenger would not fundamentally alter Iran’s priorities, but it would be taken as another step in the moderation of the region.

“Iran did not get a chip and neither did Syria,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “Today, the U.S., France, Egypt, Saudi, they all feel better.”

Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.

This article, "In Lebanese Vote, Hopeful Signs for U.S.," first appeared in The New York Times.

Copyright © 2009 The New York Times

[doug]

Neck-and-neck Iran election race gets bitter
President vows to cut off hands of those he says plundered country's wealth

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gestures to supporters during his final campaign rally in Tehran on Wednesday.
The Associated Press
TEHRAN, Iran - Iran's hard-line president took a final shot at his rivals Wednesday during his last public campaign rally, accusing his main pro-reform challenger of fabricating problems about the country's economic woes to sway voters.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is locked in a neck-and-neck race against reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi. Both have launched intense political attacks against each other and have turned the presidential election into a display of Iran's deep political divides.

The outcome will have little direct impact on Iran's key policies — such as its nuclear program or possible acceptance of Washington's offer for dialogue — which are directly dictated by the ruling Islamic clerics. But Ahmadinejad has becoming a highly polarizing figure on the international stage with comments that include questioning the Holocaust and calling for Israel's demise.

A change of government could ease Iran's isolation and give Washington and others a freer hand to build ties with Tehran and engage in negotiations over Iran's nuclear ambitions. The United States and others fear Iran could eventually seek nuclear weapons, but Iranian officials say the country only seeks peaceful reactors for electricity.

'Liar'

Thousands of Ahmadinejad supporters flocked to western Tehran to catch a glimpse of him and hear one of his final speeches before heading to the polls on Friday. No public campaigning is allowed the day before the vote.

They cheered Ahmadinejad's name, waved Iranian flags in the air and chanted slogans like "Mousavi is a liar!"

Hundreds of women dressed in long black robes, called chadors, draped Iranian flags around their neck, and several young men painted their faces in the red, white and green colors of the flag — Ahmadinejad's campaign symbol. About a dozen men stood on a nearby rooftop as Ahmadinejad spoke, frantically waving large Iranian flags in the air.

Mousavi has made Iran's struggling economy a hallmark of his campaign, accusing Ahmadinejad of manipulating statistics that hide the extent of the nation's fiscal problems despite its vast oil and gas reserves.

Earlier this week, Ahmadinejad insisted that inflation stood at 15 percent — lower than the 25 percent widely reported by financial officials. On Tuesday, Ahmadinejad admitted that inflation was 25 percent.

But he also accused Mousavi of lying about the state of the economy.

"With the grace of God, the Iranian nation will send them to the bottom of history," he said.

Two other candidates are in the race: former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaei and former parliament speaker Mahdi Karroubi. In the increasingly tight race, their level of support could play a swing role — with Rezaei expected to draw conservative voters and Karroubi pulling in moderates.


Many of Ahmadinejad's supporters said they would vote for him because he fights for the common man and champions Islam — images projected in his campaign propaganda. Several of the posters handed out at the rally showed him praying, having dinner with a rural family and comforting an elderly man.

"He's very brave and a real Muslim. He says what is right and he doesn't get frightened by anyone," said supporter Mariam Nouri, 38, who had a red, white and green ribbon tied on her wrist.

Mousavi's backers have also been flocking to the streets in recent days to show their support, and a few wearing green wristbands — Mousavi's campaign color — gathered around the fray of Ahmadinejad's rally. Thousands of Mousavi supporters, many of them young people, plan to hold a street demonstration later Wednesday in Tehran, though it is unclear if the candidate will attend.



Mousavi also made a final campaign foray into Ahmadinejad's provincial strongholds.

During his speech, Ahmadinejad launched a scathing attack against his rivals and former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. He vowed to the cut the hands off of those who he says have plundered Iran's wealth if re-elected.

"Today, their problem is not Ahmadinejad. They want to take revenge on the nation because the sin the nation committed was that it made a new choice in the previous election (by electing Ahmadinejad) ... and gave a big no to the corrupt and mischief-makers," Ahmadinejad said, drawing loud cheers from the crowd.

Ahmadinejad has been locked in a fierce power struggle with Rafsanjani for years. During a televised debate on Saturday against Mousavi, Ahmadinejad accused Rafsanjani and several current and former officials of corruption. In response, Rafsanjani sent a letter to Iran's supreme leader on Tuesday, warning him to take "serious action" against the president.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.